Trends From This Strange Year

The COVID pandemic has changed the way college-bound students interact with colleges and vice versa, both discovering new virtual ways to learn about the other. Some of these changes are directly influenced by the pandemic and likely to be temporary, while others will reverberate for years. Here are some trends from the past year:

Trends That Are Up

The most selective four-year institutions, both public and private, have seen a record-breaking 17% increase in applications this year, according to the Common Application. Colgate had a 102 percent increase in applications. Students applying to college this year through early decision programs increased by double-digit percentages at some of the most elite colleges and universities — 57% at Harvard, 38% at Yale, and 29% at Rice and Dartmouth. This is due to colleges moving to test optional policies.

Trends That Are Down

While more competitive colleges and universities are having a banner year, smaller and less competitive colleges - public and private - are not having a good year in admissions. This is especially apparent in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions. Applications to the State University of New York (SUNY) declined by 20 percent, one of the largest annual decreases in the New York system’s 73-year history, according to an op-ed by Chancellor James Malatras. He explained that COVID-19 simply amplified already declining enrollment in New York. Just before the pandemic - in fall of 2020 - SUNY enrollment of freshmen undergrads was down 10 percent. 

This is happening nationally as well. According to the National Student Clearinghouse, freshman undergraduate enrollment declined 13.1 percent nationally in the fall of 2020, (about 327,5000 students) from the prior academic year. Because of enrollment shortfalls, Becker College in Massachusetts has indicated it is in serious danger of closing, partly due to the pandemic. The school is making plans for ‘contingency closure.’ This is a school with a highly rated computer game design program.

Especially caught up in this downward trend are first-generation students and those who lack the money to pay for applications.

"The numbers of first-generation applicants and fee-waiver recipients each declined (by three and two percentage points, respectively)," according to Jenny Rickard, president and CEO of the Common App. "We continue to be very concerned about the decline among fee waiver and first-generation applicants. Persistent trends of decline among these key subgroups across the 2020-21 cycle signal a need for additional support in the months leading up to enrollment in fall 2021.”

These numbers reflect fall applications. That is not the end of the admissions cycle, and the gap may be smaller by spring. In the past, lower-income students have applied in larger numbers later in the application cycle.

Yield

The yield, or the number of students who accept an offer of admission, will be very difficult for colleges to predict this year. For the colleges with applications way up - the formulas used will not be something they can rely on this year. To balance, many colleges will increase the number of students on the waitlist, going deeper into it and using it for a longer period of time starting now extending all the way to just before school starts. Demonstrated interest will continue to play a significant role in student acceptances.

Deadlines

Deadlines outside of top colleges are flexible. Colleges that are seeking students are open to extensions, even if they had a Jan. 15 deadline. Check with individual schools about their flexibility.

Testing policies

Three quarters of colleges chose to temporarily suspend SAT/ACT testing requirements for this year. Many big-name colleges announced they will extend their test-optional policy through the next (2021-2022) admission cycle. This is true at Harvard, Columbia UPenn, Rice and UVA. Williams College, Baylor University, and Amherst College all announced even further extensions of their optional policies for 2021 and 2022 applicants (those students who will enroll in college in the fall of 2022 and 2023). A survey of colleges found that 68% of schools that went test-optional because of the pandemic plan to adopt those policies permanently. Test-optional policies vary significantly from school to school, so students need to review each carefully. Test optional policies level the playing field a little, but many colleges still accept more students who opt to submit their scores. We expect most to stay test optional, except the highly selective schools.

International student enrollment 

Enrollment of new international students fell 43% this year, with overall international enrollments at U.S. universities down 16%. Travel restrictions, safety considerations and other limitations led to difficulties for international students to study in the U.S. this year. Colleges may seek out an even broader selection of international students in the following years. As international students are not eligible for federal aid, students coming from outside the U.S. often pay more for their education here than their U.S. counterparts and are an important source for colleges.

Inclusivity

Not related to COVID, but in an attempt to make the application more inclusive for transgender applicants, the Common Application for the next application cycle will: add a question to provide applicants with the option to share their preferred first name; add a pronoun question to give students the option to multiselect or add a pronoun set; and shift the presentation of one of the current questions from “sex” to “legal sex” to reduce student confusion. 

Money

Colleges are a business, a BIG business. They have always favored full-pay students. This year they are even more focused on finance as costs have risen due to COVID safety practices, revenues have declined, the number of students attending may be lower, more students are needing aid, and endowments are under pressure. State schools know that they will receive less money from the state for the next several years as the state recovers.